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Based on the principles of differentiating planned and exploratory analyses, explain why the team must not present this sophomore chemistry major finding as a confirmed, planned result. How should they address this finding in their research report?
Case context: A team of psychologists conducts a pre-registered study to test whether a new mindfulness app reduces exam anxiety in college students. After running their planned analysis, they find no significant difference. Curious, they run twenty additional unplanned analyses testing various subgroups (e.g., student majors, class levels, sleep habits). They find a statistically significant correlation between mindfulness app usage and reduced anxiety specifically among sophomore chemistry majors.
Question: Based on the principles of differentiating planned and exploratory analyses, explain why the team must not present this sophomore chemistry major finding as a confirmed, planned result. How should they address this finding in their research report?
Sample answer: The team must not present this finding as a planned result because running multiple unplanned analyses increases the likelihood of finding chance patterns, which elevates the risk of a Type error. Instead, they should report it explicitly as an exploratory finding that is worthy of additional research, cautioning readers about its tentative nature, and state that it must be replicated in a subsequent study.
Key points:
- Presenting the finding as planned is misleading because it was uncovered through multiple unplanned tests.
- Running twenty unplanned analyses increases the probability of finding chance patterns (Type error).
- The report must explicitly label the finding as exploratory and worthy of additional research.
- The findings must be treated with caution and replicated in subsequent studies.
Rubric: To receive full credit, the response must: 1) Explain that presenting the finding as planned is misleading because running multiple unplanned tests increases the risk of Type error (chance patterns). 2) Explain that the finding should be explicitly presented as exploratory and worthy of additional research. 3) Explain that the finding must be treated with caution and requires replication in a subsequent study.
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Research Methods in Psychology - 4th American Edition @ KPU
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